Super Tuesday observations

Conventional wisdom and polls strongly suggest that Democrats are virtually guaranteed victory in November 2008. And as we come down from Super Tuesday, Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will have to continue to compete for delegates maybe all the way to the Democratic convention. However, if Senator Clinton wins the nomination, I am all but certain that John McCain will win the general election for a number of reasons. 1) There are throngs of Democrats and progressives that will never vote for any candidate that voted for the war. 2) I have had extensive conversations with Obama and Edwards supporters that will never vote for Hillary. 3) McCain would do a better job winning over Independents even though he may not have full throttle support from social conservatives. No matter the outcome, there will be widespread motivation to either vote against Clinton by voting for McCain or sitting at home.

If Clinton wins the nomination Obama will be under tremendous pressure to open up his rolodex of donors and supporters to stomp for Clinton. This will put Obama in a difficult situation because Clinton would not pick him as her running mate and the bulk of his supporters will want to see him run again.

No matter what happens with this race, Obama won.

Stay up fam,

Brandon Q.

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